With the offseason drawing nearer, MLBTR will be breaking down the free-agent class on a position-by-position basis. We’ve already run through this winter’s crop of catchers, first basemen and second basemen. You can check out the full list of this offseason’s free agents here, but we’ll take a deeper look at the options for teams in need of help at third base next.
As was the case when running through the second-base market, I’ll note that there are some star shortstops (e.g. Xander Bogaerts) who could technically be pursued as a third base option for a team that already has an entrenched shortstop, but we’ll save that group for the shortstop preview. There’s plenty of overlap with the second base market, as many of the free-agent options this winter are utility types who can capably handle either spot.
His own tier
Whether Arenado actually becomes a free agent is entirely up to him. He has five years and $144M remaining on his contract but also has an opt-out clause at season’s end that would allow him to enter into the free-agent market for the first time in his career. Arenado chose not to exercise an opt-out after the 2021 season, but he’s now owed less money and is coming off perhaps the greatest season of his brilliant career. (Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote in September that Arenado was not planning to opt out, citing “friends” of Arenado, but Arenado himself has not made any declarations one way or another.)
Even if Arenado’s goal is to remain in St. Louis, there’s a good case for him to leverage that opt-out and a huge 2022 showing into an extension or larger deal with the Cards. Through 618 plate appearances, Arenado is hitting .292/.358/.533 with 30 home runs, 42 doubles, a triple and five steals (in eight tries). Arenado’s 11.5% strikeout rate is the second-lowest of his career (and lowest over a full 162-game season). He’s second among all Major League third basemen in both Defensive Runs Saved (19) and Outs Above Average (14), trailing only Pittsburgh’s Ke’Bryan Hayes in both categories.
The five years and $144M remaining on Arenado’s contract average out to $28.8M annually — a number that, at this point, is a ways shy of where the game’s top position players are paid on an annual basis. Because next year will be his age-32 season, it’s hard to imagine him securing anything longer than a six-year deal in free agency, but as Freddie Freeman illustrated last year, it’s possible for a free agent to secure six years at that age. Arenado, of course, is coming off an even better season this year than Freeman was last winter. He’s been worth 7.2 fWAR and 7.8 rWAR — both of which are personal bests in what increasingly looks to be a Hall of Fame-caliber career.
There’s no guarantee that Arenado reaches free agency, but if he does, it’s an easy call to project a larger guarantee over five years — and perhaps over an even lengthier term than that.
A distant second place
Drury had a rough patch to begin his tenure with the Padres following a deadline swap, but he’s been swinging it just fine over the past month. Dating back to Aug. 29, Drury owns a .288/.338/.575 batting line in 80 plate appearances, and he’s logged a collective .263/.320/.497 batting line on the season. His minor league deal with the Reds was one of the best of the season by any team.
Suitors in free agency may view Drury’s 2022 campaign with some skepticism, given his disastrous 2018-20 run between the Yankees and Blue Jays (.205/.254/.346 in 582 plate appearances). However, Drury hit in a small sample with the Mets last year and has been generally productive in 2022, save for an ugly first three weeks or so in San Diego. Since Opening Day 2021, he’s at .265/.318/.494 with 32 home runs, 36 doubles and two triples in 645 plate appearances. One would think that playing a big slate of games at Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park has padded his stats, but only 12 of his 28 homers came in Cincinnati.
Defensively, third base has been Drury’s most frequent position both in 2022 and, more narrowly, in his broader career. He’s been a scratch defender there, per Statcast’s Outs Above Average, and Ultimate Zone Rating generally agrees. Defensive Runs Saved (-3) has him a bit below average, and that’s generally been the case throughout his career. Still, Drury isn’t any kind of glaring liability at the hot corner, and he has 1436 MLB innings at second base, 965 between the outfield corners and 361 at first base. At the very least, he looks like a super-utility player, but Drury has hit enough to be considered a potential starter at second or third, as well.
Utility players
Diaz has played at least 45 innings at five different positions this season: all four infield spots and left field. He was primarily a shortstop early in his career and still has more total innings there than at any position. He never graded well there, and as he enters his mid-30s, he’ll be viewed as more of a utility player. Diaz’s .248/.294/.415 line in 2022 is a bit down from the .259/.318/.433 slash he’s posted over four total seasons with the ’Stros. He’s a right-handed bat who’s shown a pretty noticeable platoon split over the past couple seasons, though early in his career he hit fellow righties better than lefties. Third base isn’t Diaz’s primary position, but he’s still tallied 758 innings there in his career.
Primarily a second baseman until the current campaign, Peterson has played mostly third base in Milwaukee this season and posted sensational defensive marks there, including 11 Defensive Runs Saved and 6 Outs Above Average in just 605 innings. The lefty-swinging Peterson has revived his career with a solid three-year run in Milwaukee, hitting .241/.339/.377 (100 wRC+) with a hefty 12.4% walk rate, 16 homers and 23 steals in 684 plate appearances. He’s even handled lefties well in a small sample over the past two seasons, although a career .217/.289/.282 output against them still suggests he’s best deployed against righties only.
A hamstring strain cost Solano more than two months, but since being activated, he’s batted .284/.338/.384 with four homers and 15 doubles in 293 trips to the plate. Solano has been quite good at home, in Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park, and below-average on the road, but this is the fourth consecutive season he’s headed for at least league-average offense overall. Dating back to his 2019 resurgence with the Giants, “Donnie Barrels” is hitting .301/.350/421 in 1068 plate appearances. He’ll turn 35 in December, though, and his defensive grades at second, third and shortstop in recent years are all lacking. He’s posted excellent numbers in 190 innings as a first baseman this year, however (5 DRS, 3 OAA).
Depth options and rebound hopefuls
Veterans with club options
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