The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: The Field Firms Up After Louisiana Derby, Jeff Ruby Steaks

Pedigree: Gun Runner - Heavenly Love (by Malibu Moon)
Owners: Magnier, Tabor, Smith, Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing, and Brant
Trainer: Chad Brown
Breeder: Debby L. Oxley (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 55

Chad Brown might be the best trainer that has yet to win the roses, and 2024 could be the year he gets off the duck. Sierra Leone launched to the top of this list with a win in the G2 Risen Star. That race aged very well when the 2-3-4 finishers behind Sierra Leone all finished in the top four of the Louisiana Derby last weekend. All of this affirms that this talented colt is currently the leader in the proverbial clubhouse.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Sierra Leone was bred in Kentucky by Debby Oxley, out of the Grade 1-winning Malibu Moon mare Heavenly Love, who is the dam of one winner from two foals to race. Heavenly Love, who raced as a homebred for Oxley, has a page that includes Japanese champion Zenno Rob Roy, Grade 2 winner Forever Darling, and Grade 1-placed stakes winner Darling My Darling.

The Coolmore partnership secured Sierra Leone for $2.3 million at the 2022 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale. Gainesway consigned the colt, as agent.

#2: Catching Freedom

Pedigree: Constitution - Catch My Drift (by Pioneerof the Nile)
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: WinStar Farm (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 125

Catching Freedom finally had a clean trip (perhaps, not coincidentally, in his first start beneath jockey Flavien Prat) in the Louisiana Derby, and he responded by coming from well behind to get the money. He did have a respectable pace to chase, but he covered the last three-sixteenths of a mile (of a 1 3/16-mile race, no less) in well under 19 seconds. That’s an internal split that hints he won’t have a problem with an additional sixteenth in Kentucky.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Catching Freedom was bred in Kentucky by WinStar Farm, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Pioneerof the Nile mare Catch My Drift. All three of Catch My Drift's foals to race are winners, also including Grade 3-placed Bishops Bay and stakes-placed Strava.

Catching Freedom sold for $575,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, consigned by Warrendale Sales, agent.

#3: Fierceness

Pedigree: City of Light - Nonna Bella (by Stay Thirsty)
Owner: Repole Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: Repole Stable (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 36

The question is, which Fierceness shows up on a given day? Fierceness’s best race towers over that of his peers. He thumped a high-quality field in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile en route to winning this division’s Eclipse Award. If he runs that type of race Saturday at Gulfstream Park, he almost certainly wins the Florida Derby by daylight and establishes himself as the Kentucky Derby favorite. If he repeats his clunker from the G3 Holy Bull, however, there will be far more questions than answers (and, for that matter, trust).

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Fierceness is a homebred for Repole Stable, and he is the first foal to race out of the winning Stay Thirsty mare Nonna Bella. The dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Outwork, and Grade 2 winner Cairo Prince can also be found in the extended family.

#4: Timberlake

Pedigree: Into Mischief - Pin Up (by Lookin At Lucky)
Owners: Siena Farm and WinStar Farm
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: St. Elias Stables, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 66

Timberlake made his 3-year-old debut a winning one in the G2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park. In that event, he crossed the wire first despite a very wide trip and ran to his bottom-side pedigree, which indicated that two turns wouldn’t be a problem. He’ll be one of the favorites in Saturday’s Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn, where, among others, he’ll lock up with Bob Baffert trainee Muth (who’d be fourth or fifth on this list if not for, well, you know…).

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Timberlake was bred in Kentucky by St. Elias Stables LLC, out of the English stakes-placed Lookin at Lucky mare Pin Up, who has had three winners from four foals to race. Top international runners Yesterday and Quarter Moon can be found in his family.

Timberlake sold for $350,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. He was consigned by Gainesway, agent.

#5: Honor Marie

Pedigree: Honor Code - Dame Marie (by Smart Strike)
Owners: Ribble Farms, Eiserman, Fishbein, and Fishbein
Trainer: D. Whitworth Beckman
Breeder: Royce Pullham (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 65

Honor Marie bounced back from a season-opening dud with a strong second in Saturday’s Louisiana Derby. Once again, he finished just a bit behind Catching Freedom, but unlike in the Risen Star, Honor Marie had a pace to rate behind (and it may have helped that this was his second start off a layoff). We know he likes Churchill Downs, given his win in last year’s G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, and the Derby will be the third start of his form cycle. Further improvement and a clean trip would certainly put him right there when it counts.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Honor Marie was bred in Kentucky by Royce Pullham, out of the Grade 2-placed Smart Strike mare Dame Marie. He is a half-brother to Grade 2-placed Abarta. English St. Leger winner Rule of Law can be found further down the page, along with French Group 1 winner Feed the Flame and Grade 3 winner Sacred Life.

Honor Marie sold for $40,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Taylor Made Sales Agency handled the colt, as agent.

#6: Mystik Dan

Pedigree: Goldencents - Ma’am (by Colonel John)
Owners: Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing, and Daniel Hamby
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Breeder: Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby & 4G Racing, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 21

I guess we know Mystik Dan likes a wet track, huh? He crushed what looked to be a very solid group in the G3 Southwest by surging through along the rail and splashing home to an eight-length score. He beat a good bunch, to be sure, but while I don’t think that effort was a total fluke, I would certainly like to see him replicate it (or come close) over a fast track. He’ll have a lot to prove on Saturday in Arkansas against two of the five horses directly above him on this list.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Mystik Dan races as a Kentucky homebred for Gasaway, Hamby, and 4G Racing. He is the first foal to race out of the winning Colonel John mare Ma'am. He hails from the family of Grade 1 winner Siphonic.

#7: Dornoch

Pedigree: Good Magic - Puca (by Big Brown)
Owners: West Paces Racing, R.A. Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding, Two Eight Racing, and Pine Racing Stables
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 60

Dornoch figured to have his biggest test to date in the G2 Fountain of Youth. After Locked, Victory Avenue, Merit, and Speak Easy scratched, such a test never materialized. Dornoch went off as the 1/5 favorite and won in professional fashion, likely securing his spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate in the process. The “who did he beat?” question, however, is a valid one, and the full brother of last year’s Derby winner figures to get a much stiffer test in next month’s G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Dornoch was bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine, out of the Grade 2-placed stakes-winning Big Brown mare Puca. All three of her foals to race are winners, also including Kentucky Derby winner Mage and stakes-placed Gunning. Grade 1 winner Finnegans Wake can be found further down the page.

Dornoch sold for $325,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Runnymede Farm consigned the colt, as agent.

#8: Domestic Product

Pedigree: Practical Joke - Goods And Services (by Paynter)
Owner: Klaravich Stables
Trainer: Chad Brown
Breeder: Klaravich Stables (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 60

Domestic Product’s Tampa Bay Derby effort didn’t come back huge on speed figures, but it did impress me enough to make me think he could be a factor in Kentucky. For the second straight outing, he rallied into the teeth of a race shape that absolutely didn’t play kindly to his late-running style. This time, he overcame it to get the money. It wasn’t the highest-profile field we’ll see all season, sure, but he’s shown he can run well in the face of adversity, and that’s a valuable trait for any Derby hopeful.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Domestic Product races as a Kentucky homebred for Klaravich Stables, out of the unraced Paynter mare Goods and Services, whose two foals to race are both winners. Grade 3 winner Cherokee Queen can be found in his extended family.

#9: Hades

Pedigree: Awesome Slew - The Shady Lady (by Quality Road)
Owners: D.J. Stable and Coltran
Trainer: Joe Orseno
Breeder: Ocala Stud, Joseph M. O'Farrell III, David O'Farrell, et al. (FL)
Kentucky Derby points: 20

On one hand, Hades looked the reigning champion 2-year-old male in the eye turning for home in the Holy Bull, found more, and dispatched that rival with relative ease. On the other, he set very slow fractions and likely won’t see a pace setup that favorable again in the first half of this year. He’s got a chance to show that effort wasn’t a fluke in the Florida Derby, where, among others, Fierceness awaits.

#10: Deterministic

Pedigree: Liam’s Map - Giulio’s Jewel (by Speightstown)
Owners: St. Elias Stable, Langone, Duncker, and Vicarage Stable
Trainer: Christophe Clement
Breeder: Hinkle Farms (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 50

Deterministic came off a long layoff to take the G3 Gotham at Aqueduct. There are some negatives to that race. It was contested over a very sloppy track, and it was run at a one-turn mile. However, Deterministic won that race in visually impressive fashion and ran like a horse who won’t mind more distance. Add in that he’s only run twice to date and may have even more room to improve, and he looks the part of an intriguing Derby prospect (one whose first two-turn start will draw plenty of attention).

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Deterministic was bred in Kentucky by Hinkle Farms, out of the winning Speightstown mare Giulio's Jewel, whose three foals to race are all winners. Grade/Group 2 winners Rabbit Run and Rainha Da Bateria, and Grade/Group 3 winners Asakusa Genki and Assateague are in his extended family, along with Breeders' Cup Juvenile runner-up He's Had Enough.

Deterministic sold to St. Elias Stables for $625,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, consigned by breeder Hinkle Farms.

#11: Track Phantom

Pedigree: Quality Road - Miss Sunset (by Into Mischief)
Owners: L and N Racing, Brewster, Caroom, and Breeze Easy
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Breeder: Breeze Easy (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 70

We have the first appearance of a distance question here. Track Phantom emerged as a player earlier this year at Fair Grounds, where he won the G3 Lecomte and ran a close-up second in the Risen Star. However, he stretched out in the Louisiana Derby, made the lead through solid but unspectacular fractions, and could manage no better than fourth. No, there aren’t many front-runners above him on this list, but it’s fair to wonder if the Derby trip is just a bit further than he truly wants to go.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Track Phantom was bred in Kentucky by Breeze Easy, out of the Grade 2-winning Into Mischief mare Miss Sunset, whose two foals to race are both winners.

The colt sold for $500,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September Sale, consigned by Taylor Made Sales Agency, agent.

#12: Liberal Arts

Pedigree: Arrogate - Ismene (by Tribal Rule)
Owners: Evan and Stephen Ferraro
Trainer: Robert Medina
Breeder: Evan and Stephen Ferraro (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 19

Liberal Arts has hit the board in all six lifetime starts, and one of those was a win in the G3 Street Sense at Churchill Downs last October. His 3-year-old debut came in the Southwest, where I thought he had an unlucky trip. He had to check a bit going into and around the first turn and took plenty of dirt the whole way around the track. He wasn’t getting to Mystik Dan, but I thought he was the second-best horse that day. He’ll get another crack at that one (and Timberlake, too) in the Arkansas Derby, where a top-three finish likely paves the way for a trip to Kentucky.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Liberal Arts is out of the stakes-winning Tribal Rule mare Ismene, whose three winners from six starters also includes stakes winner Ismelucky and stakes-placed Nardini.

#13: Stronghold

Pedigree: Ghostzapper - Spectator (by Jimmy Creed)
Owners: Eric and Sharon Waller
Trainer: Phil D’Amato
Breeder: Eric Waller & Sharon Waller (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 25

The G3 Sunland Park Derby isn’t one of the fancier Kentucky Derby preps, but Stronghold won it and, in doing so, added a graded stakes score to what’s becoming a pretty solid resume. He’s yet to finish worse than second in five career starts, and two of those runner-up finishes came in graded stakes races in California. One of his wins, meanwhile, came at Churchill Downs, where he defeated Resilience and Track Phantom in a one-turn maiden race back in October.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Stronghold races as a Kentucky homebred for Eric and Sharon Waller, and he is the first foal out of the Grade 2-winning Jimmy Creed mare Spectator. Spectator, second dam Diva's Tribute, and third dam Swiss Diva were all homebreds for the Waller program.

#14: Tuscan Gold

Pedigree: Medaglia d’Oro - Valadorna (by Curlin)
Owners: William Lawrence, Walmac Farm, and Stonestreet Stables
Trainer: Chad Brown
Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 25

New to this list (and the first of a two-Tuscan entry), Tuscan Gold ran against winners for the first time in the Louisiana Derby and acquitted himself pretty well. He was third that day behind Catching Freedom and Honor Marie despite stretching out to 1 3/16 miles in just his third lifetime start. Given the nature of this year’s 3-year-old group, that one effort may yield enough points to earn him a spot in the Derby field.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Tuscan Gold was bred in Kentucky by Barbara Banke's Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, and he is the first foal to race out of the Grade 3-winning Curlin mare Valadorna. The dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner and stallion Complexity.

Tuscan Gold sold to Jupiter Farm for $600,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September sale. Taylor Made Sales Agency consigned him, as agent.

#15: Tuscan Sky

Pedigree: Vino Rosso - South Andros (by Sky Mesa)
Owner: Spendthrift Farm
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: Sierra Farm (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 0

Tuscan Sky entered the rankings after an optional claiming win on the Risen Star undercard. He beat just two others in that race, but one of them was Nash, a highly-touted 3-year-old that ran second in the Lecomte and went on to win the Hot Springs Stakes at Oaklawn. That was this gray’s second win in as many starts, coming a month after a five-length debut victory at Aqueduct, and it’s safe to assume we’ll see him in stakes company next time.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Tuscan Sky was bred in Kentucky by Sierra Farm, out of the stakes-winning Sky Mesa mare South Andros, whose two winners from as many runners also includes Grade 2 winner Private Creed.

Spendthrift Farm purchased Tuscan Sky for $200,000 at the 2022 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale. Greenfield Farms consigned the colt, as agent.

#16: Common Defense

Pedigree: Karakontie - Allusion (by Street Cry)
Owners: Bernsen, Holmes, Holmes, and Norevale Farm
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Breeder: Tony Holmes, Norevale Farm & Union Dale (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 37

Common Defense made his first-ever start away from Oaklawn Park in the Louisiana Derby. He didn’t run terribly, but after chasing Track Phantom in the early going, he, too, had little left when the closers came calling. He finished fifth, though, and likely earned enough points to make the field should his connections want to go that route. If not, there are plenty of options for the horse that ran second to Timberlake in the Rebel.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Common Defense was bred in Kentucky by the partnership of Tony Holmes, Norevale Farm and Union Dale. He is out of the unplaced Street Cry mare Allusion, who has produced two winners from four foals to race. Grade 2 winner Fearless and Grade 3 winner Far From Over can be found on his page.

#17: T O Password

Pedigree: Copano Rickey - To Rachel (by King Kamehameha)
Owner: Tomoya Ozasa
Trainer: Daisuke Takayanagi
Breeder: Yanagawa Bokujo (JPN)
Kentucky Derby points: 40

T O Password comes from Japan, and he’ll contest the Kentucky Derby after hanging on to take the Fukuryu Stakes last weekend. He needed the wire desperately in that race, but he got it, and he does have a right to improve in what will be just his third lifetime start. If you’re curious about the pedigree, a deeper dive reveals names like Sunday Silence, Timber Country, and Kingmambo, so there’s every right for him to have some staying power.

#18: No More Time

Pedigree: Not This Time - Baroness Juliette (by Speightstown)
Owner: Morplay Racing
Trainer: Jose D’Angelo
Breeder: MAMAS Thoroughbreds, LLC (IA)
Kentucky Derby points: 45

No More Time won the G3 Sam F. Davis and would have been one of the favorites in the Tampa Bay Derby (if, you know, we’d been able to bet on it…). Unlike the Davis, where he made the lead and led at every call, he stalked a slow pace behind a Tampa Bay Derby front-runner that had everything his own way. He didn’t hold on for the lion’s share of the purse, but a runner-up finish netted him 25 more Kentucky Derby points and likely assured the Iowa-bred of a spot in this year’s Derby field.

#19: West Saratoga

Pedigree: Exaggerator - Mo Wicked (by Uncle Mo)
Owner: Harry Veruchi
Trainer: Larry Demeritte
Breeder: Two Hearts Farm II LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 67

The battle-tested West Saratoga enters this list after what’s already the 10th start of his young career. That came in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, where he was second behind Endlessly (who would be in the 11-13 range on this list if his connections hadn’t already said they’re skipping the Derby). Prior to that, he was third behind No More Time in the Sam F. Davis, and he did win the G3 Iroquois over the Churchill Downs surface as a 2-year-old.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: West Saratoga was bred in Kentucky by Two Hearts Farm II LLC, out of the unraced Uncle Mo mare Mo Wicked, whose two foals to race are both winners. Grade 1 winner Wickedly Perfect can be found in his extended family.

West Saratoga sold to Harry Veruchi for $11,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September sale. Hidden Brook consigned the colt, as agent.

#20: Resilience

Pedigree: Into Mischief - Meadowsweet (by Smart Strike)
Owners: Bushnell and Waldman
Trainer: Bill Mott
Breeder: Pam & Martin Wygod (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 10

Resilience stalked throughout in the Risen Star, and he held on for a piece of it despite being passed by Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom. He’s stepped forward in every start for his Hall of Fame trainer, who campaigned 2019 Derby winner Country House in a very similar fash-ion. Like Resilience, that one took a few starts to break his maiden before earning a minor award in the Risen Star.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Resilience was bred in Kentucky by Pam and Martin Wygod, out of the winning Smart Strike mare Meadowsweet, also a Wygod homebred, whose two foals to race are both winners. His second dam is the multiple Grade 1 winner Tranquility Lake, putting this colt in the family of Grade 1 winners Courageous Cat and After Market, as well as UAE Group 2 winner Jalil.